Last Night's NBA Draft
Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 08:49:19 AM PDT
Since we all should have interests in things other than politics and everyday topics of interests are ways to connect with people of all political stripes, I have again ventured into one of my sports diaries
This is for the basketball junkies.
Wednesday night I wrote up my predictions for the draft but didn't print this diary yesterday. My predictions and exact wording are blockquoted and were not changed after the fact. (Quite obvious since much is wrong.)
Now with the draft done, I've updated comments afterward. Generally, if a guy went higher than I said he should I don't like it and if he went lower than I thought, then the team did well.
- Derrick Rose will be taken first by the Chicago Bulls. Rose is no Chris Paul or Deron Williams but he will be a borderline All Star point guard in 2-3 years. Chicago's problem is too many tweener guards and unless they find a way to pull off a deal, Rose won't help much immediately.
Update: True to form.
- Michael Beasley will be drafted 2nd but the team currently in the 2 spot, the Miami Heat, will trade this pick. Pat Riley wants OJ Mayo and if Minnesota offers the right deal, they'll swap with the Heat. Seattle at 4 is the team that I think the Heat match up with best. Part with Jeff Green and Johan Petro and they get Beasley, who is best friends with Kevin Durant. Memphis at 5 could make a push if they include Miller, Conley and their pick. The Knicks at 6 are an outside shot to move up to 2 but would have to give up David Lee and others.
Update: It looks for now like Beasley is staying pat although I wouldn't rule out a deal with Seattle down the road. They also picked up Chalmers in a trade. Chalmers should have gone mid-first round but went in round 2.
- OJ Mayo goes third either to the Heat in a trade or simply to the Timberwolves standing pat. Kevin McHale is one of the dumbest GMs in NBA history (lost 4 1st rounders for tampering, couldn't build a 2nd rd playoff team around Kevin Garnett) but even McHale can't mess this up. (Brook Lopez)
Well I was right and wrong. McHale managed to screw this up by trading away Mayo for Love. I tried to think of a dumb scenario where McHale would mess up and McHale shows again that he is even dumber than I thought.
- The pick here is probably Jeryd Bayless, the point guard from Arizona. He would fit Seattle or Miami. Russell Westbrook is also a possibility depending on how the workouts went. I like Westbrook more and think Bayless is a bit overrated.
Update: They picked Westbrook. He'll be better than Bayless.
- Memphis rarely knows what it is doing. They should try to trade down and get Kevin Love around 8 or 9. But they'll take Kevin Love here which is too high. Love is a solid player though but that's it.
They drafted Love and Minnesota blessed the Grizzlies. Love doesn't compliment Al Jefferson at all. I like both Jefferson and Love but not together. And to trade Love for Mayo is stupid even if you got back Mike Miller.
- The Knicks are hoping Bayless slips to them and he could. But they'll decide between Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook, and Joe Alexander. Alexander is a freak athlete, Westbrook has the potential to be a solid PG who can defend the permiter but Gallinari has the most upside. With the Knicks 2-3 years away, they should take the Italian whose father roomed with Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni for 8 years.
Gallinari is the right pick. He has tremendous upside. The Knicks are rebuilding.
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The LA Clippers are the Busheviks of the NBA and always manage to screw things up. They'll pick Eric Gordon who will be a bust.
And the Clippers did.
- The Milwaukee Bucks have a bunch of good players and would love to trade one of their forwards. They could go DJ Augustin or Westbrook but most likely will go with Joe Alexander. Although he's a freak athlete, this pick has Adam Morrison written all over it.
They picked Alexander. I like the Jefferson trade for them. Where does Alexander fit though? This team is one bonafide power forward away from being a top contender in the East. Watch Ramon Sessions break out this season at point guard.
- As good a player Jordan was, he's that bad as a GM. The Bobcats have bungled draft picks in recent years (Adam Morrison). New coach Larry Brown hopes Kevin Love slips to number 9. Otherwise, this is a tough spot for the Bobcats. The best value here in my projected draft is at PG (Augustin and Westbrook) but the Bobcats have Felton. Anthony Randolph is a risk-reward player. The pick here should be Westbrook and he'll share time with Felton. Plus, Westbrook can defend which Larry Brown covets.
Westbrook went off the board at 4. They did right by picking Augustin who I felt was undervalued.
- The Nets have the 10th pick. The best value on the board is Augustin but the Nets have Devon Harris with Marcus Williams as a backup. The Nets need size. Few have Anthony Randolph going to Jersey. But that's the right pick. He doesn't have to score for that team his first year and can develop his defense and rebounding. He'll need time to develop.
The Nets chose Brook Lopez, the "safer" pick.
- The Pacers recently traded Jermaine O'Neal and they are a mess of a franchise right now. They just got TJ Ford to run their point. They'll take Brook Lopez, the 7 footer from Stanford who is the safe pick. I have Lopez valued right around here. He could go higher though because of his size.
Bayless slipped to here and was traded to Portland. Great pickup for Portland, the Blazers are on the road to an NBA championship but might be 1 year away. Make the right deal (package parts for 1 more superstar) and I'll pick them in 09.
- The Sacramento Kings pick 12th. They traded Mike Bibby away last year. Augustin makes sense here and the Kings get a break because Augustin will be better than 4-5 guys taken ahead of him. To me he's a top 8 player in this draft.
The point guards were gone. They took Jason Thompson. This was several picks too high. They could have traded down 5-7 spots and still gotten Thompson.
- Portland has the 13th pick. With the right trade and no injuries they can win an NBA championship as early as this season with Roy, Oden, Aldridge, Fernandez, and a strong bench. They have to figure out a way to package 4-6 of their usable parts for a star. The deal that makes the most sense would be with Milwaukee. Include this pick, an expiring contract, Jarrett Jack, and a 2nd rd pick and get Michael Redd. This is the point in the draft where pick 13 and pick 23 could be the same player. I have Darrell Arthur from Kansas going here.
Wow I was wrong about Arthur. They take Brandon Rush and send him to Indiana.
- The Golden State Warriors love to run and gun. Brandon Rush fits this category. Another Jayhawk.
Rush is gone but Randolph falls to them at 14. Great pick.
- The run on Jayhawks continues. Phoenix cost themselves at least 1 if not 2 NBA championships by cheaply trading away their firsts for money and not paying up on Joe Johnson. They want to trade Barbosa so they'll need another guard. That guard is Mario Chalmers.
They took Robin Lopez. Worst pick of the first round. Lopez currently dates Michelle Wie, the talented, attractive head case who is 20 but emotionally going on 5 because her childhood was destroyed by her sick parents.
- Philadelphia is a team on the rise but may remain static this year. This is a guessing game at this point as the players are similar. I'll say Kosta Koufos, the Center from Ohio State, who has some offensive game. We are at the point where the next 10 picks can all be thrown in a hat and chosen at random.
They took Mareesse Sprights. Ho hum.
- Indiana picks again. They are in rebuilding mode. The pick here is one of my sleepers, JJ Hickson of NC State.
They took the bust Roy Hibbert. Doh!
- The Washington Wizards are caught in NBA purgatory, not good enough to make a run in the playoffs, not bad enough to rebuild just yet. They should take DeAndre Jordan. Jordan could be the next Yinka Dare but he could also be the next Andrew Bynum. It's worth the gamble.
They take the wrong gun in Javal McGee.
- Cleveland needs more athleticism and a scorer. I will make my first big reach of the draft and say Courtney Lee from Western Kentucky. He's a senior and Cleveland needs to win now if they have any shot to keep Lebron in 3 years.
They took Hickson, good pick.
- Charlotte picks again. This is the spot to gamble on Serge Ibaka from Congo. He's not ready yet but the upside is great. Brown can put him on the bench for a year, teach him, and see what develops by year two.
They gamble with Ajinca. Good gamble.
- The Nets go again at 21. They need size and with perimeter scorers can go for defense and size. Roy Hibbert could give them 15 solid bench minutes in that role. They should gamble with Alexis Ajinca but will probably take the bust in waiting in Hibbert.
They take Ryan Anderson who seems to be a burlier version of Kristic with less talent. This was not a good pick.
- The Magic at 22 need a shooter. Courtney Lee is the guy that fits him best but I had him go at 19. They'll stay local and go with the Florida kid, Marreese Speights, a solid but unspectacular selection.
They ended up with Courtney Lee. This worked out well for Orlando.
- The Jazz go at 23 and are looking for size. This is Carlos Boozer's last year. They might as well gamble and take Ajinca, the 7 foot Frenchman who is high risk, high reward.
Koufos slipped to 23. At this point in the draft, this is a wise selection.
- The Sonics pick again at 24. They'll gamble with the Croatian 7 footer Ante Tomic and try to sign him. Worth the value at this point.
Seattle makes a smart pick in Serge Ibaka. They are rebuilding.
- Houston wants Donte Greene from Syracuse. Houston gets Donte Green from Syracuse.
Well they ended up with Greene but drafted Batum and traded him to Portland. Portland does well again.
- The Spurs pick at 26 and like to stock up on foreign players who can help down the road. They'll go with Nicolas Batum, the forward from France, who has dropped in the draft because of health concerns. Tony Parker is also from France.
Batum gets taken off the board as Portland moved up 2 spots to get him. The Spurs select a guard named George Hill, an unknown quantity.
- The Blazers just acquired this pick. I'd like to think they'll package it with the 13 and other parts to move up in the draft. If they stay put, Chris Douglas Roberts seems like the logical pick. This is a player who may be a bust but also could be a Vinnie Johnson type spark shooter off the bench. Worth the gamble for Portland.
Darrell Arthur is selected here and ends up going to Memphis.
- Memphis gets to go again at 28. They take Javale McGee who has slipped big time.
Greene gets taken here and ends up with Houston
- The Pistons select at 29. They go Jason Thompson, the forward from Rider who has a game.
They take DJ White from Indiana. Solid selection. He should contribute.
- The Boston Celtics go with Ryan Anderson, a forward from California. They had success with Leon Powe, another alum.
They go with a guard named Giddens from New Mexico. Who knows.
Guys not mentioned that may go in round 1
Robin Lopez - To me this is a joke. He's barely an NBA backup but could go as high as 15.
Update - he went 15th.
Trent Plaisted - The big kid from BYU can play defense and rebound. He could go to the Jazz at 23 or any team thereafter.
Bill Walker - The Kansas State guard is slipping because of injuries. If healthy, he's a first round pick but a risky one. Teams will avoid him in Round 1. He may even slip past pick 45.
DJ White - A good college player, I don't know how his game translates to the NBA.
Omar Asik - A lot depends on his contract situation with his Turkish club. Talent wise he should go in the 21-25 range if not higher. This is unlikely though.
Jamont Gordon - He's a guard from Mississippi. I could see the Spurs or Celtics taking him.
Nathan Jawai - He's a project from Australia.
Devon Hardin - He's a big guy from California. Also a project but I'd gamble on him over Robin Lopez any day of the week.
Kyle Weaver - He's a guard from Washington State. Seattle at 24 might gamble on him.
