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...and try to force Obama to make some grievous error so bad that people will have to settle for Clinton. There is no other plausible scenario in which Clinton gets the nomination.
The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.
by DHinMI on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:04:37 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
by continuing to throw math sand in everyone's eyes.
PocketNines, you rock.
by Spoonfulofsugar on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:10:53 AM PDT
At first I was sort of annoyed he didn't endorse early on. Now I appreciate the strong possibility of former Vice President Al Gore, shirtless and wearing a black hood, just waiting on the sidelines for the chance to deliver a final coup de grace on the monster. If he did it earlier, it wouldn't have the impact that it likely will.
(Of course, there is always the possibility he'll line up behind Sen. Clinton!)
WARNING: There is a high probability that the preceding comment is snark. Use your best judgment (hopefully better than Senator McCain's).
by Anarchofascist on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:14:46 AM PDT
that he may be the nominee.
http://www.newsweek.com/...
If that happens, the convention could turn to a compromise candidate. Al Gore is the most obvious and perhaps the only contender who could head off a complete meltdown in the party.
John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.
by IhateBush on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:27:44 AM PDT
If Gore really wanted to play in the big game, why didn't he put his pads on a year ago? There's a possibility he foresaw the future treachery of the Clinton campaign and wanted to keep his hands clean, but could he have really foreseen it going to the convention like this?
by Anarchofascist on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:34:10 AM PDT
and that's one reason why he did not endorse and asked Edwards not to endorse either.
Not so much that he would be the nominee, but the possibility that a divided party would be likely.
by IhateBush on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:44:50 AM PDT
Now that Edwards has been out of the race since February, had his secret conversations with both Obama and Clinton, where's Waldo? I would imagine enough caucus's and primaries have gone by, that Edwards supporters have without his endorsement, found their way to endorse either Obama or Clinton! His campaign must see through blogs and exit polls, the direction his constituency have gone, so why doesn't he step up to the plate? Now's the time, especially with North Carolina coming up and Pennsylvania!
by Nicoletta on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:29:34 PM PDT
is part of a group of party elders headed by Gore who are trying to bring a resolution to the primary contest.
by True Independent on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 02:30:09 PM PDT
Again, it's the arithmetic. Obama will win this nomination, because by the time of the convention, he will need to carry only about 25% of the remaining unpledged superdelegates.
There must be some way, somehow, to maintain an infinite rate of increase in our consumption of a finite resource...
by AWhitneyBrown on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:03:02 PM PDT
he's not in the race! To think that there's any scenario where Gore ends up as the nominee is utter nonsense. Sorry, but it's as simple as that.
by IvanR on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:54:19 AM PDT
doubt it. The CW is that he felt the Clintons damaged his chances for the Presidency.
by Heart of the Rockies on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:44:49 AM PDT
He has the highest score 96% from the LCV of any of the candidates. I can't see Gore passing him up for Hill. I've often wondered if Bill asked him to sit this election out. We may never know.I think Gore would have won hands down. But I'm very happy with Obama.My second choice behind Gore. I know a lot of people like Edwards but his Enviro record is awful.Too important of an issue for me. Thanks 9, you cheered me up considerably today.Great diary.
Proud to be everything the Right Wing hates!
by Wild Starchild on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:07:02 PM PDT
Stop scaring me. Enough with the "politics of fear!"
"I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together" - Lennon
by dchill on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:44:13 PM PDT
Something on the level of Romney's 1967 comment about being brainwashed, or revelations of Eagelton's shock therapy, or Hart's Monkey Business, Biden's plagiarism, something that destroys his credibility and suitability.
In short, not something stupid and trivial like the Gore sighs that can only matter in a painfully close general election, but something that undoes the math of the previous contests and makes him obviously and unquestionably unsuitable as a general election candidate.
by DHinMI on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:30:52 AM PDT
That's what it will take.
Something to allow a superdelegate to say "Yeah, I know he won Virginia, but that obviously never would have happened if the voters had known this."
by Rieux on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:36:58 AM PDT
Or, "that would have never happened if we'd known he would turn out this way."
by DHinMI on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:40:32 AM PDT
Dead Girl.
by Anarchofascist on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:43:01 AM PDT
operative on the part of those hoping for the Big Obama Blunder: that Hillary will not make one herself.
I say she already has, with her stroking of McCain.
JOHN McCAIN = George W. Bush's 3rd term.
by chumley on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:53:01 PM PDT
May your entire existence be one sensuous, frolic-filled experience lived in defiance of care.
by Fonsia on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:12:53 PM PDT
the greater the chances of desperation + the higher chances of making more blunders on the part of the Clintons
"Just being the President is not a good way of thinking about it. You want to be a great president." - Barack Obama
by politicaljunkie on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 05:17:01 PM PDT
could just as easily swing against her. Next few weeks are going to be interesting.
"We're all working for the Pharaoh" - Richard Thompson
by mayan on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 09:33:18 PM PDT
I said this just upstream.
In a sense, HRC/GOP are like a basketball team down three possessions with eights seconds to go. Some combo of turnovers and lost rebounds must occur; hitting the actual shots is almost secondary: the opportunity must come before the action.
WRT to some specific incident, the longer the clock is not in play, the better chance someone can manufacture something in some manner or another.
After seeing the Canadian dirty trick, it's obvious one side has consolidated, whether overtly, covertly or not at all. They both share a sense of desperation about being taken out of the game altogether.
"But their gift is an empty snake, Carrying hypocrisy in its mouth like venom" - Sami Al Hajj
by walkshills on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:27:48 PM PDT
is a much more astute politician than Gore.
He has been walking a tightrope campaigning against Hillary very well so far & probably will continue to. He has done well to avoid giving her any ammunition to play the victim card. I disagree with those that say he must hit back harder. All he has to do is keep on the slow and steady and let the game play out. As pocketnines has pointed out, he has the lead and will keep it.
Never give up! Never surrender!
by oscarsmom on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:55:47 AM PDT
come convention time he will be the leader and be able to say he has taken the high road and did not hurt the party with his campaign. Overturning that would damage the party for decades.
by retriever on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 03:06:12 PM PDT
Fortunately this is a pretty obvious gambit which Team Obama can anticipate, and even verbal slip-ups aren't likely to do the job. Worst case is supers hold out til June when all the races are run.
fivethirtyeight.com
by PocketNines on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:11:33 AM PDT
He took his appointment by SCOTUS 5-4, as a mandate. Just pointing that out.
by AWhitneyBrown on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:13:29 PM PDT
winning a national election by 1 vote and then ignoring the rest of the country as to how you govern. Apples and oranges, I think. How winners are determined isn't the same as style of governance once in office.
by PocketNines on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:32:21 PM PDT
That would be a plan to help McCain now and run against him in 2012. It's desperate but she may also regard 2012 as her last chance of ever becoming President if not this time around.
"Proud to be part of DailyKos -- the Best Political Team on . . . well, ANYWHERE"
by Alden on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:30:32 AM PDT
I don't see that. Not at all. They know there's almost no way McCain can win if we don't self-destruct, and if Obama self-destructs because of Clinton and McCain is president, she's done forever.
They know it's this year or never.
by DHinMI on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:32:20 AM PDT
do you really think they're being that rational over in the Clinton camp?
This thing is starting to remind me of 2000 in its ugliness. Nothing will be agreed on now between the two parties because we're in the middle of the game and both will only do what is in their best interests and not the other. So that means we go to the equivalent of the Supreme Court, or the convention and superdelegates.
That is, unless the bigwigs step in early and persuade her to hold her fire.
by oscarsmom on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:58:43 AM PDT
...with him looking more electable, with him with a solid lead in pledged delegates, probably bigger than he has today, and her with nowhere to go except hope for an explosion before or during the convention. I think at that point people will be stepping in telling her to concede rather than keep the party suspended for almost three more months.
In fact, it may start before that. But Obama's failure to win the primary votes in OH and TX weakened the PR case for her to step aside, even though the underlying case, as laid out in this diary, really isn't any better today than it was last Monday. In fact, it's probably worse, because there are fewer delegates available.
by DHinMI on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:08:16 PM PDT
I just wonder if she's listening. This season has brought out a coarseness and possibly a hubris in the candidate and her camp that I hadn't noticed earlier.
If she flames dragon-breath back at everyone who tries to twist her arm, this could drag on for a dangerously long time. Even the 6+ weeks to Pennsylvania can do an incredible amount of damage. HRC has become the proverbial loose cannon.
But I hope that by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest, Barack is hitting back about her campaigning as a Republican.
by Alden on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:20:10 PM PDT
and if Obama self-destructs because of Clinton and McCain is president, she's done forever.
I suppose you're right.
But is she thinking that clearly? She seems to believe there's on one else who can save the planet.
by Alden on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:13:04 PM PDT
Someone who can't or simply doesn't see the big picture, and is focused only on themselves.
Run with it.
Tikkun Olam...Obama '08
by tethys on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:40:16 PM PDT
after seeing HRC's awesome lack of judgment and strategy in this campaign (not planning for after 2/5, not knowing the mechanics of the Texas primary/caucus until a week or two beforehand), I would not bank on them being able to formulate any kind of competent strategic decision.
The Charge of the Light Brigade comes to mind- from the Source of All Human Knowledge:
The brigade was not completely destroyed, but did suffer terribly, with 118 men killed, 127 wounded. After regrouping, only 195 men were still with horses. The futility of the action and its reckless bravery prompted the French Marshal Pierre Bosquet to state "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre." ("It's magnificent, but it isn't war.") Rarely quoted, but he continued: "C'est de la folie"- "it's madness."[7] The Russian commanders are said to have initially believed that the British soldiers must have been drunk.
Iran, Russia, Saudia Arabia, and Norway will no longer be oil exporters by 2030. Link
by aztecraingod on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:16:07 PM PDT
So why does she continue, knowing, as she must do, that Obama will have no trouble getting at least 90 Superdelegates?
Is her campaign not doing the math? Is she insane?
I think this is the only theoy that really makes sense. If Obama loses, she'll still be the most famous Democratic leader, and in 2012 running against a 75 yo McCain she'll get to say, you should have chosen me in 2008, now you'll get another chance.
by mishar on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:50:17 PM PDT
by Alden on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:06:37 PM PDT
Her entire argument is that she can win the "swing states." She also needs Florida and Michigan to revote and for her to win. Then she will state that she won: Arizona Arkansas Florida Kentucky Michigan Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Tennessee West Virginia New Hampshire New Mexico which represent 138 electoral votes in November
compared to Obama's winning Colorado Montana Louisiana Missouri Iowa which only represent 39 electoral votes
This argument is flawed IMO because AZ, MI, and PA are not true swing states and Obama has a chance of picking up VA and NC in the general, but this is HRC's best chance at winning.
If she's got the momentum, she has a slim but real chance of going to the remaining unpledged superdelegates and getting 65%.
Anyway, it's her only chance.
One man gathers what another man spills
by John Chapman on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:43:01 PM PDT
of squat. Clinton won the Georgia primary in 1992, did he win Georgia? No. Al Gore won in Tennessee in 2000, did he win there in the general? No. Kerry won the Florida and Iowa primary/caucus in 2004, did he win either? No.
The Clinton campaign argument of "vote for me" or New Jersey, New York, California, Ohio, et al. are all going to go for McCain is absolutely bunk and anyone who has any knowledge of politics knows this.
by ndhapple on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 03:17:57 PM PDT
Earlier in the primaries she was prone to talking about how much better her numbers were in certain areas, thus how much more electable she was, but she was talking at the time about Democratic numbers, not GE numbers.
As your comment points out, just cuz you can win a lot of Democrats doesn't mean you can win the election. Obama has been doing a much better job of selling himself as a fusion candidate than Hillary, without being less progressive.
I think many people in Hillary-friendly enclaves have forgotten just how polarizing she is elsewhere. Or else maybe they want to polarize and conquer, to get revenge for all that she and Bill went through. Unfortunately, that's a dish best served . . . not at all.
by Alden on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 03:41:46 PM PDT
Georgia in the primary and won Georgia in the General Election
by John Chapman on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:52:04 PM PDT
It would be stupid to assume one would win in 2012 especially if a stronger Republican showed up like say Jeb Bush against Hillary Clinton.
by politicaljunkie on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 05:21:46 PM PDT
I'd (probably) vote for her in the general if the alternative was a Republican, but I can't see her getting much support in future primary campaigns, given how badly she's mismanaged this one. I've heard several people who voted for her in early states wish they could take it back now, and after kneecapping Obama so badly the Democrats tank in what should be an easy win, I can't imagine she'd be able to call on the same sort of institutional Democratic support she's enjoyed this year.
My heart belongs to Kucinich...
by Wit Whither Wilt on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:10:46 PM PDT
2012 won't happen for her if she's perceived as having hurt Obama in the primaries, and even now, as Bill Clinton has been saying, her only hope is to somehow get the nomination with Obama in the back of the bus for her. Camp Clinton sees the only solution to repairing the damage her nomination would cause is to get Obama on board as VP, have him endorse the theft. But first the theft has to occur, and I don't see that happening.
by AWhitneyBrown on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:09:31 PM PDT
I know that LBJ acquiesced to it in 1960, but that was LBJ's only chance.
Obama would be an idiot to be her VP anyway, but especially after a stolen nomination.
by Fonsia on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 01:24:22 PM PDT
The Clintons are using this whole meme as another lying ploy. Personally, I would be looking over my shoulder worrying about my safety if Obama took HRC as VP. Who can ever trust the Clinton's about anything? Not me.
'Course I'm respectable. I'm old. Politicians, ugly buildings and whores all get respectable if they last long enough. Noah Cross, Chinatown
by Badabing on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 04:28:51 PM PDT
The constitutional crisis was over two years ago. It's been full-scale erosion since then.
by geomoo on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:46:04 PM PDT
by yoduuuh do or do not on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 04:25:53 PM PDT
wide narrow
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