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http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/...
"You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer
by bonddad on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 05:25:14 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Massive crash, end of the world, hundreds of wankers in stripy braces jumping from windows onto their Porches, a quadrillion dubloons wiped off of global stocks, courts overflowing with Chapter 7 applications, and then...
People still want to work and earn. Talented entrepreneurs want to entre...uh...preneur. All those houses that got built? Real estate. Assets. More housing is good for everyone.
So let's get it over with. I can't see how Bernanke can believe in good faith that it's possible to borrow our way out of this hole. At least with a hole, you can keep digging and come out in China. It's more like being high up on a ladder when it starts wobbling. You're not going to make it down, and climbing up is just going to make it worse. Jump now: it's not getting any better.
-- Disagree? Please select your reason: [ ] retard, [ ] Freeper troll, [ ] witch
by DemCurious on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 05:37:46 AM PDT
Next question?
"It's the planet, stupid."
by FishOutofWater on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 05:44:51 AM PDT
by DemCurious on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:00:00 AM PDT
and much of Asia does not have problems with debts. However, the U.S. economy is still vulnerable to a banking crisis which would have global effects.
There is no reset button on our economy. The old Marxist theory "Things have to get worse before they can get better." has been shown wrong repeatedly. Shock therapy has destroyed the economies of a number of third world countries.
The IMF and World Bank have used the "reset button" approach many times. The results are predictable. The little guy suffers. The rich buy up assets at fire sale prices.
by FishOutofWater on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:11:04 AM PDT
Fish, if Krugman ever goes on leave, I'm nominating you to replace him.
Seek first and final principles at The Mean Free Path.
by Cream Puff on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 09:22:50 AM PDT
... because they come attached with lots of destructive conditions.
A better example of what DemCurious is saying might be Malaysia which rebuilt its economy after bottoming out by doing the opposite of the IMF/WB model.
Read John Raulston Saul's "The Collapse of Globalisation".
Post Ironical
by lifexpert on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 09:39:45 AM PDT
basket cases, due to WW1 indemnities (Germany), and WW1 debt (Britain).
We're playing that role this time.
Think of Bush as an economic Verdun, Somme and Passchendaele, all rolled into one...................
The Perfect is the Enemy of the Better
by dabize on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:24:12 AM PDT
I'm just gonna self-invoke Godwin's Law here, take my pessimism as read, and go learn how to grow food in a household garden and price tickets to Japan or something.
oct 2006: -8.75, -5.79 apr 2007: -8.00, -6.00 Born too late to live my life
by Kara Jade on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 10:13:46 AM PDT
The markets still would have crashed. The banks still would have failed. The only difference is that the few dollars still floating around would have been worthless. How would that have turned out? We'd probably have a hammer and sickle on the flag where the stars are, that's how!
It's interesting that overseas markets rallied even though their central banks left interest rates untouched. We're down 192 points in the first half hour of trading today, even with the biggest rate cut in 23 years.
Hmmm, ya think maybe low interest rates aren't a magic bullet?
message to the future
by CharlieHipHop on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:54:02 AM PDT
And if you take the digging route, youre going to go through Hell to get there: literally.
Bernanke just wants a quick fix, a bandaid, and hope that it works. To do what you say would take actual moxie, some real leadership, demanding the markets work out their own problems: that's supposed to be the Repuglican way of doing it: getting the govt out of business.
Bernanke's just an order taker, trying to put lipstick on the pig of disaster
If Liberals really hated America we'd vote Republican
by exlrrp on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 05:52:51 AM PDT
Do you suspect that he may soon discover an irresistible urge to spend more time with them?
by DemCurious on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:03:32 AM PDT
occupies the Whitehouse. His kids will become more important.
I am here to represent the democratic wing of the Democratic Party.
by Josiah Bartlett on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:26:39 AM PDT
He's just propping things up now to get Bush through his term relatively unscathed, but when November comes along and Hillary (likely) wins, transform into Volcker (sp?) and jack interest rates through the roof (end result, Dems get smacked with the blame for destroying the economy).
I'm not buying the BS about the Fed being "neutral".
by catnap1972 on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:54:48 AM PDT
by Josiah Bartlett on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 11:13:19 AM PDT
knowing the nation is in good hands again.
by NYFM on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 10:25:19 AM PDT
and Congress? They all know what has to be done, but they don't have the balls to do it. It's called job preservation at all costs.
If the people lead, the leaders will follow.
by Mz Kleen on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:15:20 AM PDT
The real problem is all the money resides right now with the wealthy, and the rest of us have none to spend. Wait til the next quarters earnings, or rather lack of them, start coming out. Until we fix that, nothing will work, and things will worsen fast. Interest rates could be at zero and it won't help.
The Justice Department is no longer a credible defender of the rule of law or the Constitution.
by Overseas on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:33:31 AM PDT
maybe long enough to help get them past the election and allow more time for their cronies to ease out of the market, but the basic problem still exists.
There is no incentive to save with inflation rates rising and very low interest rates. It's almost like they're paying people to borrow and charging them to save. Where is the money going to come from to finance the borrowing? The printing presses? A dollar further devalued and spiraling inflation.
I'd suggest we encourage our children and grandchildren to learn Chinese.
"Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control people..." Henry Kissinger
by truong son traveler on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:26:31 AM PDT
only occured (and much less than believed) because people were ashamed of having invested more money than they had, and gone belly up in the process.
The guys having gotten rich in the past 30 years have no shame. They still think the game will give them more free lives in which to play. Didn't notice Enron or global crossing having any shame about the little guys they bankrupted either.
fact does not require fiction for balance
by mollyd on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:04:59 AM PDT
maybe we should throw them?
by Deward Hastings on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 10:20:12 AM PDT
A friend's uncle was invested in both the stock market and Boston area real estate during the 1980's. When the market dropped and the bottom fell out of the Boston real estate bubble, he lost so much money it sent his blood pressure through the roof, and that was that - he died of a heart attack while on the phone with his broker.
My friend, an immigrant escaping an oppressive government, was in the process of getting her green card. She had been working for her Uncle, and lost her immigration sponsor when he died. She ended up having to take a job as a software engineer - a job with a whole bunch of nasty strings attached in exchange for the company covering the costs of getting her green card. The company went bankrupt before her application finished the process. I have no idea what happened to her afterwards.
People we know as "speculators" in hind-sight are often considered "savvy investors" when times are good. And those "savvy investors" can still lose their shirts and suffer for it, and their families are affected, too.
Dump Steny Hoyer
by mataliandy on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 03:08:31 PM PDT
The only rationale I can think of for this rate cut was to try to stabilize the ARM market and reduce foreclosures. In this it may be somewhat effective, at least in the short term.
But interest rate movements lag 12-18 months in affecting business activity, according to conventional wisdom, so it won't do anything in the short term to increase economic activity otherwise. As bonddad points out, the rate cut will worsen inflation and further depress the dollar, which will likely cause long bond rates to increase so Americans can compete in the global capital markets.
This is a small short-term fix with big medium-term costs. Bernanke is faced with a menu of bad choices, and this may not have been his best one.
Hanoi didn't break John McCain, but Washington did.
by Dallasdoc on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:14:40 AM PDT
... for some folks who want to stay in their homes. They are real people and I'm glad they'll get a little relief.
However, I remember reading somewhere that mortgage defaults correlate more with housing market declines than with mortgage resets. When the market price of the house falls below the amount of the mortgage, that's when people bail out on their mortgages.
If true, this confirms what intuition would suggest-- that the price of housing has gotten out of line with real incomes. That means that on a cash flow basis, housing payments were too high for many people. They were willing to sustain negative cash flow month after month as long as the market value of their real estate continued to appreciate. As soon as the market turned negative, the monthly cash drain became unsustainable.
Cheaper credit may help slow the decline of housing prices a bit, but I don't see this cut reversing the market psychology any time soon. The basic dynamic of defaults driven by declining home values will continue.
by DBunn on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:35:20 AM PDT
around the notion that homes are primarily investments--just look at HGTV. We need to get back to the notion that homes are residences, places to live. If you can't make the payments comfortably, you should not be buying the house.
IGTNT
by blue jersey mom on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:43:03 AM PDT
The main problem with the HGTV-style industry isn't that it promotes housing as investment, but that it promotes short-term investments.
Housing actually is a very solid investment, and a good pillar of most retirement plans, for most families - over a 20-year+ period.
A large part of the problem also is shrinking incomes.
Army 1st Lt. Ehren T. Watada, Lt. Cdr USN Matthew Diaz, SPC Eli Israel: true American heroes.
by sdgeek on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 08:54:41 AM PDT
A house is a place to live, but many Americans view them as fucking fortresses. Kind of interesting--obessively make over your house, bar the door, and fuck the outside world.
I've thought this for years.
by jvantin1 on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 09:23:23 AM PDT
but it won't help much.
If they REALLY want to help things, and force the banks to actually look at what they're doing, they need to put some serious caps on consumer interest rates.
Cap credit card interest rates at 4 times the prime. That would put money in people's pockets TOMORROW. It would also mean that the same payment you've been making might actually put dent in the balance for a change. Cap the fees they can charge as well - those are obscene.
What the Fed did means less than NOTHING to the vast majority of people. It won't change my car payment, or my mortgage payment, or my utility bills, or what I put out for food, gas, insurance. It MIGHT (though the chance is slim to none) change the interest rate on credit cards. I doubt it though - they haven't gone down since the mid-80s, when MORTGAGE rates were 14%. There was some rationale for credit card rates to be at 20%+ then. What's the reason now?
I suspect it's the same reason for most of the bank fees, charges, and rates - because nobody is stopping them.
I say it's time we started stopping the banks from robbing us blind.
by mmacdDE on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 09:44:38 AM PDT
Finding your own Voice -- The personal is political!
by In her own Voice on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 10:32:26 AM PDT
I remember when 11% was considered usury. It was illegal in many states to charge more than that.
My 1st credit card had a real interest rate of 6% (no weird adjustments without warning, no evil teaser rates that jump through the roof after a year).
Banks supposedly use interest rates to reduce their losses if someone defaults, but if the rates themselves are so high that they cause defaults, then they're counter-productive, yes?
And if the banks can charge such high rates, then aren't they more likely to take greater than-appropriate risks, on the assumption that there won't be enough defaults to wipe out the profits from the high rates?
by mataliandy on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 03:21:47 PM PDT
The market operates on and is supported by perceptions as much as anything. What Bernake did was to reinforce the perception that the Fed is ready to respond to instability in the market, especially negative instability.
Another way to say that is that he reinforced the perception that the Fed will allow profits to remain privitized but losses will be socialized.
by Josiah Bartlett on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:31:33 AM PDT
We should begin by strengthening the unemployment insurance system, because money received by the unemployed would be spent immediately. The federal government should also provide some assistance to states and localities, which are already beginning to feel the pinch, as property values have fallen. Typically, they respond by cutting spending, and this acts as an automatic destabilizer. Federal assistance should come in the form of support for rebuilding crucial infrastructure.
We should begin by strengthening the unemployment insurance system, because money received by the unemployed would be spent immediately.
The federal government should also provide some assistance to states and localities, which are already beginning to feel the pinch, as property values have fallen. Typically, they respond by cutting spending, and this acts as an automatic destabilizer. Federal assistance should come in the form of support for rebuilding crucial infrastructure.
Here is the rest of the column from the NYT.
by Unbozo on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:14:28 AM PDT
How many people who are suddenly taking in 30% of their former income for 12 months - with no guarantee of a new job - are able to pay $800 - $1300/month to continue the likely crappy insurance they had at work?
I always thought that was the stupidest thing I ever heard of.
I thought it even more stupid when we ended up in that very situation....
by mataliandy on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 03:25:10 PM PDT
by Unbozo on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 10:57:36 AM PDT
term rates to shore up the banks. Banks make the most money when they can take in short term money at tlow rates and lend it out for longer time periods at higher rates. The fed cuts made 2-5 year loans profitable for banks.
The Fed cuts do not fix our economic problems but the did help the banks and they helped stop panic selling.
I absolutely agree with you about our debt problems. Those problems begin with the Federal government. The government should only go into debt to invest in the future, not to pay for ongoing expenses, when times are good. Bush and Reagan have hurt the economy by running huge deficits in good times.
by FishOutofWater on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 05:43:15 AM PDT
Has this had an impact on the debt problem?
"Control of the initiative is control of the battle. In the alley, at the poker table or in politics. One must raise." David Mamet
by coral on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:20:55 AM PDT
Hugely.
Je suis inondé de déesses
by Marc in KS on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:37:36 AM PDT
During almost every other war in American history, taxed were raised to pay for it. Taxes were never cut before during a war.
If the WH actually asked Americans to pay for this clusterf**k in Iraq, troops would be leaving the next day. If Pelosi really wanted to end the war, she'd propose a tax increase to pay for it.
Some men see things as they are and ask why. I see things that never were and ask why not?
by RFK Lives on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:40:50 AM PDT
guns and butter seems it used to be there was a choice you either paid for the guns, or the butter not only have we done both, but we've wasted most of the guns part, and borrowed for both and I've always wondered how you have a permanent tax cut as a stimulus?!? so, since things go in cycles, what do you do the next time?
When we say worst president in history, we're including the next 200 years as well
by askyron on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:25:29 AM PDT
It would be (slightly) easier to live w/ the guns if we were getting butter, too.
by RFK Lives on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 07:54:27 AM PDT
....to take their butter (oil).
(Didn't work so well.)
by Bush Bites on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 10:17:42 AM PDT
The Dutch children's chorus Kinderen voor Kinderen (= “kids for kids”): is a world cultural treasure.
by lotlizard on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 11:51:38 AM PDT
right on, very true!
by LokiMom on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 08:32:22 AM PDT
Running a deficit is just a different name for raising taxes. On us, on our children, and probably on their children.
John McCain--not so much old as obsolete.
by ohiolibrarian on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 11:33:51 AM PDT
wide narrow
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